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Staff · 编辑部 · Official
【行业观察】有出处简报（投行前瞻 / 媒体转述口径，≠ 公司正式季报，非站方审计）/ News commentary with sources (bank foresight / media paraphrase — ≠ company filing; not an audit by this forum)
富途新闻转述高盛中国消费/酒店 2026 三季度业绩前瞻（公开链见文末；请以原文为准）：行业侧——STR 口径中国酒店 Q3 RevPAR 约同比 -1%（7 月约 -4%、8/9 月回升至约持平/+1%）；分档奢华约 +2%、经济约 +1%、中档约 -6%。公司交流侧——华住与亚朵 Q3 RevPAR 预期同比持平或小幅正增长。亚朵零售/供应链——线上追踪亚朵星球 Q3 GMV 约同比 +60%（较 Q1 约 +77%、Q2 约 +82% 放缓）；高盛在考虑追踪与财报约 15%–20% 差异后，预计零售收入约 +40%、供应链收入约 +45%；综合总收入约 +32%；EBITDA 约人民币 8.42 亿元、同比约 +23%，但因较低利润率的零售与供应链占比提升，EBITDA 利润率同比约下滑 1.7 个百分点。开业——高盛预计亚朵 Q3 毛开业约 150 家（Q1/Q2 约 110/101），前三季度累计约 361 家，对照全年指引约 480–490 家。以上均为投行前瞻/媒体转述，≠ 亚朵公司正式季报或 IR 公告。
Per Futunn paraphrase of Goldman's China consumer/hotel 3Q26 foresight (public link below; treat original as authoritative): industry — STR China hotel RevPAR ~-1% YoY in Q3 (Jul ~-4%; Aug/Sep rebound to roughly flat / +1%); by tier luxury ~+2%, economy ~+1%, midscale ~-6%. Company-check side — Huazhu and Atour Q3 RevPAR expected flat to slight +. Atour retail/supply-chain — online tracking shows Atour Planet Q3 GMV ~+60% YoY (slower vs Q1 ~+77% / Q2 ~+82%); after allowing ~15–20% tracking-vs-reported gap, Goldman expects retail revenue ~+40%, supply-chain revenue ~+45%; total revenue ~+32%; EBITDA ~RMB842m (~+23% YoY) with EBITDA margin ~-1.7ppt YoY as lower-margin retail/supply-chain mix rises. Openings — Goldman expects Atour Q3 gross openings ~150 (vs Q1/Q2 ~110/101), YTD ~361 vs FY guide ~480–490. All figures above are bank foresight / media paraphrase — ≠ Atour company results or IR release.
编辑部解读（加盟/业主视角，不夸大）/ Editorial read (owner / franchisee lens; no hype)
1. 投行前瞻 ≠ 正式季报 ≠ 本店预算：周会表仍以本店扣佣后净 ADR 与本地供给为准，勿把「行业 -1% / 亚朵持平略正 / 总收入 +32%」抄成店级 KPI。
Bank foresight ≠ formal filing ≠ same-store budget — standup still starts from after-commission net ADR and local supply; do not copy 「industry -1% / Atour flat-to-slight+ / total rev +32%」 into floor KPIs.
2. 零售/供应链占比升 ≠ 本店扣佣净 ADR：集团总收入与 EBITDA 可被零售/供应链抬高，但业主先拆客房扣佣净 ADR，勿把星球 GMV / 零售增速当成本店房价净利。
Rising retail/supply-chain mix ≠ after-commission same-store net ADR — group total rev / EBITDA can be lifted by retail/supply-chain while owners still split room after-commission ADR; do not treat Planet GMV / retail growth as same-store rate net.
3. 中档约 -6% 时先守净 ADR：行业中档承压、奢华/经济相对韧性时，中档加盟更宜先守扣佣后净 ADR，再决定要不要以价换量或关低效 OTA。
When midscale is ~-6%: with luxury/economy relatively resilient in the public framing, midscale franchisees should defend after-commission net ADR before trading price for volume or closing weak OTAs.
讨论问题 / Discussion prompts
1. 读到「亚朵星球 GMV +60% / 零售约 +40% / 利润率约 -1.7ppt」时，你先问本店扣佣净 ADR，还是先问零售叙事对本店渠道佣金的挤压？上周实际摊开的是哪一张？
When you see 「Atour Planet GMV +60% / retail ~+40% / margin ~-1.7ppt」, do you ask after-commission same-store net ADR or retail-narrative pressure on floor channel commissions first — which table did you open last week?
2. 若股权方用「行业 -1% 但亚朵持平略正」压本店预算，你用哪三列挡住（扣佣净 ADR / 投行前瞻≠季报 / 零售占比≠本店净 ADR）？
If partners cite 「industry -1% but Atour flat-to-slight+」 against your budget, which three columns block it (after-commission ADR / foresight≠filing / retail mix≠same-store net ADR)?
3. 本周若只能守一件：你先守扣佣后净 ADR，还是先关一条低效 OTA？
If you may defend only one thing this week — hold after-commission net ADR first, or close one weak OTA first?
出处 / Source: https://news.futunn.com/post/1002344333/2026-q3-performance-preview-revpar-remains-stable-new-hotel-supply （富途转述高盛前瞻；投行前瞻 ≠ 公司正式季报；非站方审计）
— 国际酒店论坛编辑部 / IHForum Editorial (Official)
富途新闻转述高盛中国消费/酒店 2026 三季度业绩前瞻（公开链见文末；请以原文为准）：行业侧——STR 口径中国酒店 Q3 RevPAR 约同比 -1%（7 月约 -4%、8/9 月回升至约持平/+1%）；分档奢华约 +2%、经济约 +1%、中档约 -6%。公司交流侧——华住与亚朵 Q3 RevPAR 预期同比持平或小幅正增长。亚朵零售/供应链——线上追踪亚朵星球 Q3 GMV 约同比 +60%（较 Q1 约 +77%、Q2 约 +82% 放缓）；高盛在考虑追踪与财报约 15%–20% 差异后，预计零售收入约 +40%、供应链收入约 +45%；综合总收入约 +32%；EBITDA 约人民币 8.42 亿元、同比约 +23%，但因较低利润率的零售与供应链占比提升，EBITDA 利润率同比约下滑 1.7 个百分点。开业——高盛预计亚朵 Q3 毛开业约 150 家（Q1/Q2 约 110/101），前三季度累计约 361 家，对照全年指引约 480–490 家。以上均为投行前瞻/媒体转述，≠ 亚朵公司正式季报或 IR 公告。
Per Futunn paraphrase of Goldman's China consumer/hotel 3Q26 foresight (public link below; treat original as authoritative): industry — STR China hotel RevPAR ~-1% YoY in Q3 (Jul ~-4%; Aug/Sep rebound to roughly flat / +1%); by tier luxury ~+2%, economy ~+1%, midscale ~-6%. Company-check side — Huazhu and Atour Q3 RevPAR expected flat to slight +. Atour retail/supply-chain — online tracking shows Atour Planet Q3 GMV ~+60% YoY (slower vs Q1 ~+77% / Q2 ~+82%); after allowing ~15–20% tracking-vs-reported gap, Goldman expects retail revenue ~+40%, supply-chain revenue ~+45%; total revenue ~+32%; EBITDA ~RMB842m (~+23% YoY) with EBITDA margin ~-1.7ppt YoY as lower-margin retail/supply-chain mix rises. Openings — Goldman expects Atour Q3 gross openings ~150 (vs Q1/Q2 ~110/101), YTD ~361 vs FY guide ~480–490. All figures above are bank foresight / media paraphrase — ≠ Atour company results or IR release.
编辑部解读（加盟/业主视角，不夸大）/ Editorial read (owner / franchisee lens; no hype)
1. 投行前瞻 ≠ 正式季报 ≠ 本店预算：周会表仍以本店扣佣后净 ADR 与本地供给为准，勿把「行业 -1% / 亚朵持平略正 / 总收入 +32%」抄成店级 KPI。
Bank foresight ≠ formal filing ≠ same-store budget — standup still starts from after-commission net ADR and local supply; do not copy 「industry -1% / Atour flat-to-slight+ / total rev +32%」 into floor KPIs.
2. 零售/供应链占比升 ≠ 本店扣佣净 ADR：集团总收入与 EBITDA 可被零售/供应链抬高，但业主先拆客房扣佣净 ADR，勿把星球 GMV / 零售增速当成本店房价净利。
Rising retail/supply-chain mix ≠ after-commission same-store net ADR — group total rev / EBITDA can be lifted by retail/supply-chain while owners still split room after-commission ADR; do not treat Planet GMV / retail growth as same-store rate net.
3. 中档约 -6% 时先守净 ADR：行业中档承压、奢华/经济相对韧性时，中档加盟更宜先守扣佣后净 ADR，再决定要不要以价换量或关低效 OTA。
When midscale is ~-6%: with luxury/economy relatively resilient in the public framing, midscale franchisees should defend after-commission net ADR before trading price for volume or closing weak OTAs.
讨论问题 / Discussion prompts
1. 读到「亚朵星球 GMV +60% / 零售约 +40% / 利润率约 -1.7ppt」时，你先问本店扣佣净 ADR，还是先问零售叙事对本店渠道佣金的挤压？上周实际摊开的是哪一张？
When you see 「Atour Planet GMV +60% / retail ~+40% / margin ~-1.7ppt」, do you ask after-commission same-store net ADR or retail-narrative pressure on floor channel commissions first — which table did you open last week?
2. 若股权方用「行业 -1% 但亚朵持平略正」压本店预算，你用哪三列挡住（扣佣净 ADR / 投行前瞻≠季报 / 零售占比≠本店净 ADR）？
If partners cite 「industry -1% but Atour flat-to-slight+」 against your budget, which three columns block it (after-commission ADR / foresight≠filing / retail mix≠same-store net ADR)?
3. 本周若只能守一件：你先守扣佣后净 ADR，还是先关一条低效 OTA？
If you may defend only one thing this week — hold after-commission net ADR first, or close one weak OTA first?
出处 / Source: https://news.futunn.com/post/1002344333/2026-q3-performance-preview-revpar-remains-stable-new-hotel-supply （富途转述高盛前瞻；投行前瞻 ≠ 公司正式季报；非站方审计）
— 国际酒店论坛编辑部 / IHForum Editorial (Official)
