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Staff · 编辑部 · Official
【行业观察】有出处简报（投行前瞻 / 公开报道口径，非公司正式季报，非站方审计）/ News commentary with sources (bank foresight / public-report framing — not company results; not an audit by this forum)
长桥转述经济通（约 2026-10-28）：美银研究报告预期华住集团第三季收入按年约 +8% 至约 75 亿元人民币，基于 RevPAR 按年大致持平、毛开店/净开店约 620/442、特许经营收入约 +19%；预期经调整 EBITDA 约 +12% 至约 28.21 亿元、经调整净利约 +17% 至约 17.76 亿元。报道称第三季 RevPAR 按年约 -1%，其中 7/8/9 月分别约 -3%、持平、+1%；10 月至今 RevPAR 约 +3%（部分受黄金周带动）。目标价上调至约 47.1 港元、重申买入——以上均为投行前瞻与媒体转述，不是华住正式季报数字。
Per Longbridge / ET Net (~2026-10-28): BofA research expects Huazhu Q3 revenue ~+8% YoY to ~¥7.5bn, assuming RevPAR roughly flat, gross/net openings ~620/442, franchise revenue ~+19%; Adj. EBITDA ~+12% to ~¥2.821bn; Adj. net ~+17% to ~¥1.776bn. Report cites Q3 RevPAR ~-1% YoY with Jul/Aug/Sep ~-3%/flat/+1%; Oct-to-date RevPAR ~+3% (partly Golden Week). Target raised to ~HK$47.1, Buy reiterated — all bank foresight / media paraphrase, not Huazhu formal quarterly results.
编辑部解读（单店可读法，不夸大）/ Editorial read (single-hotel lens; no hype)
1. 投行前瞻 ≠ 公司正式季报 ≠ 本店预算：业主周会表仍以本店扣佣后净 ADR 与本地供给为准，勿把「预期收入 +8% / RevPAR 持平」抄成店级 KPI。
Bank foresight ≠ company results ≠ same-store budget — standup still starts from after-commission net ADR and local supply; do not copy 「expected rev +8% / RevPAR flat」 into floor KPIs.
2. 月度路径（7 月弱 → 9 月转正 → 10 月约 +3%）提醒：假期高点与平日要分列，避免用国庆/秋假外推 11–12 月商务疲弱周。
Monthly path (soft July → Sep turn → Oct ~+3%) reminds: holiday peak vs midweek need separate columns — do not extrapolate Golden Week / autumn breaks into soft Nov–Dec corporate weeks.
3. 特许/净开店叙事强时：先问本店渠道净 ADR 与关停候选 OTA，不是集团毛开店数字本身。
When franchise / net-opening narrative is strong: ask same-store channel-net ADR and candidate OTAs first — not group gross-opening counts alone.
讨论问题 / Discussion prompts
1. 读到「投行预期 RevPAR 持平 / 收入 +8%」时，你先问本店扣佣净 ADR，还是先等公司正式季报？上周实际摊开的是哪一张？
When you see 「bank expects RevPAR flat / rev +8%」, do you ask after-commission net ADR first or wait for formal results — which table did you open last week?
2. 若股权方用美银前瞻压本店预算，你用哪三列挡住（前瞻≠正式报 / 假期高点 vs 平日 / 本地供给）？
If partners cite BofA foresight against your budget, which three columns block it (foresight≠filing / holiday-peak vs midweek / local supply)?
3. 本周若只能守一件：你先守净 ADR，还是先关一条低效 OTA？
If you may defend only one thing this week — hold net ADR first, or close one weak OTA first?
出处 / Source: https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/303319653 （长桥 / 经济通转述美银研报；约 2026-10-28；投行前瞻口径，非公司正式季报，非站方审计）
— 国际酒店论坛编辑部 / IHForum Editorial (Official)
长桥转述经济通（约 2026-10-28）：美银研究报告预期华住集团第三季收入按年约 +8% 至约 75 亿元人民币，基于 RevPAR 按年大致持平、毛开店/净开店约 620/442、特许经营收入约 +19%；预期经调整 EBITDA 约 +12% 至约 28.21 亿元、经调整净利约 +17% 至约 17.76 亿元。报道称第三季 RevPAR 按年约 -1%，其中 7/8/9 月分别约 -3%、持平、+1%；10 月至今 RevPAR 约 +3%（部分受黄金周带动）。目标价上调至约 47.1 港元、重申买入——以上均为投行前瞻与媒体转述，不是华住正式季报数字。
Per Longbridge / ET Net (~2026-10-28): BofA research expects Huazhu Q3 revenue ~+8% YoY to ~¥7.5bn, assuming RevPAR roughly flat, gross/net openings ~620/442, franchise revenue ~+19%; Adj. EBITDA ~+12% to ~¥2.821bn; Adj. net ~+17% to ~¥1.776bn. Report cites Q3 RevPAR ~-1% YoY with Jul/Aug/Sep ~-3%/flat/+1%; Oct-to-date RevPAR ~+3% (partly Golden Week). Target raised to ~HK$47.1, Buy reiterated — all bank foresight / media paraphrase, not Huazhu formal quarterly results.
编辑部解读（单店可读法，不夸大）/ Editorial read (single-hotel lens; no hype)
1. 投行前瞻 ≠ 公司正式季报 ≠ 本店预算：业主周会表仍以本店扣佣后净 ADR 与本地供给为准，勿把「预期收入 +8% / RevPAR 持平」抄成店级 KPI。
Bank foresight ≠ company results ≠ same-store budget — standup still starts from after-commission net ADR and local supply; do not copy 「expected rev +8% / RevPAR flat」 into floor KPIs.
2. 月度路径（7 月弱 → 9 月转正 → 10 月约 +3%）提醒：假期高点与平日要分列，避免用国庆/秋假外推 11–12 月商务疲弱周。
Monthly path (soft July → Sep turn → Oct ~+3%) reminds: holiday peak vs midweek need separate columns — do not extrapolate Golden Week / autumn breaks into soft Nov–Dec corporate weeks.
3. 特许/净开店叙事强时：先问本店渠道净 ADR 与关停候选 OTA，不是集团毛开店数字本身。
When franchise / net-opening narrative is strong: ask same-store channel-net ADR and candidate OTAs first — not group gross-opening counts alone.
讨论问题 / Discussion prompts
1. 读到「投行预期 RevPAR 持平 / 收入 +8%」时，你先问本店扣佣净 ADR，还是先等公司正式季报？上周实际摊开的是哪一张？
When you see 「bank expects RevPAR flat / rev +8%」, do you ask after-commission net ADR first or wait for formal results — which table did you open last week?
2. 若股权方用美银前瞻压本店预算，你用哪三列挡住（前瞻≠正式报 / 假期高点 vs 平日 / 本地供给）？
If partners cite BofA foresight against your budget, which three columns block it (foresight≠filing / holiday-peak vs midweek / local supply)?
3. 本周若只能守一件：你先守净 ADR，还是先关一条低效 OTA？
If you may defend only one thing this week — hold net ADR first, or close one weak OTA first?
出处 / Source: https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/303319653 （长桥 / 经济通转述美银研报；约 2026-10-28；投行前瞻口径，非公司正式季报，非站方审计）
— 国际酒店论坛编辑部 / IHForum Editorial (Official)
